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Total Members
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Growth Rate (30d)
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Posts / Day
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Engagement (7d)
Period:

Month | New Members | New Posts
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Total Members
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New (7d)
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Posts (7d)
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Active Members (7d)
Recent Member Joins
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Top Contributors (30d)
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Daily Activity Last days
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At-Risk Members
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Critical Members
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Revenue Impact
EUR /mo per member
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Avg Churn Score

#### Churn Prediction Score v2 (0-100)

Each member receives a weighted churn score from 6 components. Higher score = higher churn risk. Only members active within the last 7 days are evaluated.

#### 1. Inactivity Recency (20%)

Exponential curve: `min(95, floor(100 * (1 - e^(-0.23 * days))))`. Half-life at ~3 days.

Days Inactive | Score
--- | ---
0 (today) | 0
1 | ~15
2 | ~30
3 | ~50
5 | ~78
7 | ~95 (cap)
Never seen | 80

#### 2. Activity Decline Trend (25%)

Weighted activity (posts×3, comments×2, likes×1) in last 7d vs. prior 14d (normalized to 7d).

Situation | Score
--- | ---
No baseline, no recent activity | 50 (neutral)
New contributor (no prior, has recent) | 0
Complete drop-off (had prior, zero recent) | 100
Otherwise | `clamp((1 - recent/prior) * 100, 0, 100)`

#### 3. Community Loyalty Ratio (20%)

Compares activity in our community vs. all Skool communities. Members active elsewhere but silent here are actively disengaging.

Ratio (community/Skool) | Score
--- | ---
≥50% | 0 (loyal)
30-49% | 15
10-29% | 35
1-9% | 60
<1% (token) | 80
0% (active elsewhere, zero here) | 95
Both inactive / no data | 40

#### 4. Tenure-Adjusted Engagement (10%)

Weighted lifetime activity (posts×3, comments×2, likes×1) vs. membership duration.

Tenure | 0 activity | 1-5 weighted | 6+ weighted
--- | --- | --- | ---
0-7 days | 85 | 40 | 10
8-30 days | 90 | 60 | 20
31-90 days | 70 | 40 | 10
90+ days | 50 | 30 | 5

#### 5. Social Connectivity (15%)

Weighted social score: (comments given+received)×2 + (likes given+received)×1 in last 30 days.

Social Score | Score
--- | ---
15+ | 0 (well connected)
8-14 | 20
3-7 | 40
1-2 | 60
0 | 80 (isolated)

#### 6. Chat Participation (10%)

Chat messages in last 14 days. If no chat data exists, weight is redistributed.

Messages (14d) | Score
--- | ---
10+ | 0
5-9 | 15
1-4 | 35
0 | 70

#### Final Score & Risk Tiers

`score = 0.20*inactivity + 0.25*decline + 0.20*loyalty + 0.10*tenure + 0.15*social + 0.10*chat`

Without chat data: `0.22*inactivity + 0.28*decline + 0.22*loyalty + 0.11*tenure + 0.17*social`

Score | Tier | Color
--- | --- | ---
0-25 | Healthy | Green
26-50 | Watch | Amber
51-75 | At Risk | Orange
76-100 | Critical | Red

#### Watchlist Alert Rules

Alert | Condition | Severity
--- | --- | ---
Going Silent | 2+ days inactive + declining trend + has posted | Warning
New Member Ghost | Joined 3-7 days ago, 0 posts AND 0 likes | Warning
Complete Drop-Off | 2+ posts in prior 14d, 0 in last 7d | Critical
Silent Churner | Paying member + 2+ days inactive | Critical
Veteran Going Dark | Joined >90d, 10+ posts, 3+ days inactive | Warning
Engagement Cooling | >75% weekly community activity drop, still active | Warning
Active Elsewhere | 10+ Skool actions, ≤1 here, loyalty <5% | Critical

Only members active within the last 7 days are shown — members inactive longer have already churned. Admins and owners are excluded. Revenue impact = at-risk + critical paying members × monthly price.

Risk | Score | Member | Last Active | Posts (7d) | Comments (7d) | Trend | Joined | Status
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Trend:

### Watchlist Alerts

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### New Member Onboarding Health

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Onboarding Rate (7d)
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Onboarding Rate (14d)
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Ghost Rate
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Avg Days to First Post