---
Revenue Impact
EUR
/mo per member
Churn Prediction Score (0-100)
Each member receives a weighted churn score from 5 components. Higher score = higher churn risk.
1. Inactivity Recency (35%)
Days since last_active timestamp from Skool.
| Days Inactive | Score |
| 0-2 | 0 |
| 3-7 | 15 |
| 8-14 | 35 |
| 15-21 | 55 |
| 22-30 | 75 |
| 31-60 | 90 |
| 60+ | 100 |
| Never seen | 80 |
2. Activity Decline Trend (25%)
Compares posts+comments in the last 14 days vs. the prior 28-day period (normalized to 14 days).
| Situation | Score |
| No baseline, no recent activity | 50 (neutral) |
| New contributor (no prior, has recent) | 0 |
| Complete drop-off (had prior, zero recent) | 100 |
| Otherwise | clamp((1 - recent/prior) * 100, 0, 100) |
3. Tenure-Adjusted Engagement (15%)
New members who never posted are more at-risk than veteran lurkers.
| Tenure | 0 posts | 1-2 posts | 3+ posts |
| 0-7 days | 85 | 40 | 10 |
| 8-30 days | 90 | 60 | 20 |
| 31-90 days | 70 | 40 | 10 |
| 90+ days | 50 | 30 | 5 |
4. Social Connectivity (10%)
Likes given + received in last 30 days. Socially embedded members are less likely to churn.
| Social Score (likes) | Score |
| 10+ | 0 |
| 5-9 | 20 |
| 2-4 | 40 |
| 1 | 60 |
| 0 | 80 |
5. Chat Participation (10%)
Chat messages sent in last 30 days. If the community has no chat data, this weight is redistributed to other components.
| Messages (30d) | Score |
| 10+ | 0 |
| 5-9 | 15 |
| 1-4 | 35 |
| 0 | 70 |
Final Score & Risk Tiers
score = 0.35*inactivity + 0.25*decline + 0.15*tenure + 0.10*social + 0.10*chat
Without chat data: 0.39*inactivity + 0.28*decline + 0.17*tenure + 0.11*social
| Score | Tier | Color |
| 0-25 | Healthy | Green |
| 26-50 | Watch | Amber |
| 51-75 | At Risk | Orange |
| 76-100 | Critical | Red |
Watchlist Alert Rules
| Alert | Condition | Severity |
| Inactive >14d | Last active >14 days AND has posted before | Warning |
| New, no post after 7d | Joined 7-14 days ago, 0 posts | Warning |
| Complete drop-off | 3+ posts in prior period, 0 in last 14d | Critical |
| Silent churner | Paying member + inactive >21 days | Critical |
| Long-term going dark | Joined >90d, 10+ posts total, inactive >14d | Warning |
Admins and owners are excluded from the default view. Revenue impact = critical paying members × monthly price per member.
| Risk |
Score |
Member |
Last Active |
Posts (14d) |
Comments (14d) |
Trend |
Joined |
Status |
| Loading... |
New Member Onboarding Health
---
Onboarding Rate (14d)
---
Avg Days to First Post