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Total Members
 
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Growth Rate (30d)
 
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Posts / Day
 
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Engagement (7d)
 
Period:
Month New Members New Posts
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Total Members
 
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New (7d)
 
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Posts (7d)
 
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Active Members (7d)
 
Recent Member Joins
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Top Contributors (30d)
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Daily Activity Last days
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At-Risk Members
 
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Critical Members
 
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Revenue Impact
EUR /mo per member
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Avg Churn Score
 

Churn Prediction Score (0-100)

Each member receives a weighted churn score from 5 components. Higher score = higher churn risk.

1. Inactivity Recency (35%)

Days since last_active timestamp from Skool.

Days InactiveScore
0-20
3-715
8-1435
15-2155
22-3075
31-6090
60+100
Never seen80

2. Activity Decline Trend (25%)

Compares posts+comments in the last 14 days vs. the prior 28-day period (normalized to 14 days).

SituationScore
No baseline, no recent activity50 (neutral)
New contributor (no prior, has recent)0
Complete drop-off (had prior, zero recent)100
Otherwiseclamp((1 - recent/prior) * 100, 0, 100)

3. Tenure-Adjusted Engagement (15%)

New members who never posted are more at-risk than veteran lurkers.

Tenure0 posts1-2 posts3+ posts
0-7 days854010
8-30 days906020
31-90 days704010
90+ days50305

4. Social Connectivity (10%)

Likes given + received in last 30 days. Socially embedded members are less likely to churn.

Social Score (likes)Score
10+0
5-920
2-440
160
080

5. Chat Participation (10%)

Chat messages sent in last 30 days. If the community has no chat data, this weight is redistributed to other components.

Messages (30d)Score
10+0
5-915
1-435
070

Final Score & Risk Tiers

score = 0.35*inactivity + 0.25*decline + 0.15*tenure + 0.10*social + 0.10*chat

Without chat data: 0.39*inactivity + 0.28*decline + 0.17*tenure + 0.11*social

ScoreTierColor
0-25HealthyGreen
26-50WatchAmber
51-75At RiskOrange
76-100CriticalRed

Watchlist Alert Rules

AlertConditionSeverity
Inactive >14dLast active >14 days AND has posted beforeWarning
New, no post after 7dJoined 7-14 days ago, 0 postsWarning
Complete drop-off3+ posts in prior period, 0 in last 14dCritical
Silent churnerPaying member + inactive >21 daysCritical
Long-term going darkJoined >90d, 10+ posts total, inactive >14dWarning

Admins and owners are excluded from the default view. Revenue impact = critical paying members × monthly price per member.

Risk Score Member Last Active Posts (14d) Comments (14d) Trend Joined Status
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Trend:

Watchlist Alerts

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New Member Onboarding Health

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Onboarding Rate (7d)
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Onboarding Rate (14d)
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Ghost Rate
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Avg Days to First Post